75% of CFOs are somewhat pessimistic about the US economy (2025)

As CFOs continue to evaluate the implementation process and market reactions to tariffs put in place by the Trump administration, finance chiefs in CNBC's CFO Council made it evident via the leadership group’s most recent CFO survey that they are leaning toward pessimism when it comes to economic outlook and viability for growth.

The report found that 75% of CFOs said they are pessimistic about the economy, likely resulting from economic uncertainty from government trade policy and forecasts of higher inflation by the Federal Reserve.

Risks and growth expectations

Without surprise, U.S. trade policy was the top-ranked concern among CFOs, followed by inflation and consumer demand. These findings are similar to the results in the most recent Duke-Fed CFO survey, which was published a day after the CNBC CFO survey. Both reports find similar cases that CFOs are concerned about tariffs and their impact but are unable to strategize to resolve uncertainty because the information on impact and legitimacy is not yet available.

When asked which sectors are ripe for growth over the next six months, four in ten (40%) CFOs said they didn’t know, the most common answer selected. Energy came in second, netting 20% of the total tally, with half that amount (10%) saying both technology and healthcare, resulting in a tie for third-place expectations.

Surveyors also noted that not a single CFO labeled communications services, consumer discretionary, real estate or utilities as the best-performing sector for Q2 and Q3.

For their economic outlook, 60% of CFOs said they expect a recession in the second half of 2025. When asked about the severity of a recession in the next two years, half (50%) said it would be moderate and 40% said it would be mild. Ten percent said there is no chance a recession is happening in the next two years.

Tariffs and the government’s impact

Though a majority (55%) of CFOs said they are uncertain about tariffs because they don’t know which ones will persist, there is a near-even split among those who have made up their mind on their impact. A quarter (25%) said they believe tariffs will not help the economy, and a fifth (20%) said they will help.

Nearly all (95%) respondents said that the current policies in place by the Trump administration are affecting their ability to make business decisions. According to the surveyors, they believe CFOs feel that President Donald Trump has been fulfilling his campaign promises but find his approach “chaotic, disruptive and too extreme,” a much different sentiment than how some CFOs felt after his victory in Q4 of last year.

Judging the Fed

CFOs have mixed feelings about the Fed’s handling of inflation. Nearly a fifth (15%) said the Fed is doing an excellent job, but far more (45%) labeled the performance as good.

Though only 5% were openly critical about the Fed’s performance, two-thirds (66%) said they believe the Fed is still a ways out from its 2% goal, forecasting it will hit that no sooner than 2027. A quarter of all CFOs (25%), though likely supportive of the Fed’s approach due to the aforementioned lack of critiques, surprisingly said they are unsure if the 2% target will ever be reached.

Recommended Reading

• Though concern is up, most CFOs aren’t doing anything about tariffs — Duke-Fed survey CFO
• Tariffs, turnover and new CPA pathways — Themes from The CFO Alliance’s Q1 roundtables CFO
• Solving the tariff puzzle: A call to action for businesses CFO